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Nantong Zhiyun vs Guizhou Zhicheng — League One 2018

Nantong Zhiyun
Nantong Zhiyun
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Guizhou Zhicheng
Guizhou Zhicheng
8/31/2019League OneLeague One · Round 24Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Nantong Zhiyun49%
×Draw26%
Guizhou Zhicheng25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nantong Zhiyun
1.48
Guizhou Zhicheng
0.98

Nantong Zhiyun creates 51% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 41 away

creates per match

Nantong Zhiyun
1.58
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.05

allows per match

Nantong Zhiyun
0.91
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.37

finishing

Nantong Zhiyun+0.00on par
Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nantong Zhiyun ↓

Guizhou Zhicheng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Nantong Zhiyun or draw
75%
Nantong Zhiyun or Guizhou Zhicheng
74%
Draw or Guizhou Zhicheng
51%

Winning margin

Nantong Zhiyun wins by 2+
24%
Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Nantong Zhiyun 1+ goals
77%
Nantong Zhiyun 2+ goals
43%
Nantong Zhiyun 3+ goals
19%
Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals
62%
Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals
26%
Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Nantong Zhiyun (draw refunded)
66%
Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nantong Zhiyun at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.91 · 79 matches

Guizhou Zhicheng away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.37 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nantong Zhiyun attack 1.58 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.48

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.05 + Nantong Zhiyun defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Nantong Zhiyun scores more
49%
level
26%
Guizhou Zhicheng scores more
25%

Nantong Zhiyun at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Nantong Zhiyun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Nantong Zhiyun 1–2 Guizhou Zhicheng

Guizhou Zhicheng beat Nantong Zhiyun 2-1 in League One on August 31, 2019.

The match was played at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Rugao.