Guizhou Zhicheng 2–0 Nantong Zhiyun: Result & Stats

Guizhou Zhicheng

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Nantong Zhiyun

5/11/2019

League One · Round 9Guiyang Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Guizhou Zhicheng33%

×Draw28%

Nantong Zhiyun40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guizhou ZhichengExpected goals in this matchNantong Zhiyun

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.28

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.13

Nantong Zhiyun

1.28

Nantong Zhiyun creates 13% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 77 away

1.30

creates per match

1.38

1.18

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.30

Nantong Zhiyun

1.38

allows per match

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.18

Nantong Zhiyun

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par

Nantong Zhiyun+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guizhou Zhicheng ↓

Nantong Zhiyun →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Guizhou Zhicheng or draw

60%

Guizhou Zhicheng or Nantong Zhiyun

72%

Draw or Nantong Zhiyun

67%

Winning margin

Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+

13%

Nantong Zhiyun wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals

68%

Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals

31%

Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals

11%

Nantong Zhiyun 1+ goals

72%

Nantong Zhiyun 2+ goals

37%

Nantong Zhiyun 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)

45%

Nantong Zhiyun (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guizhou Zhicheng at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.18 · 40 matches

Nantong Zhiyun away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.96 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.30 + Nantong Zhiyun defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.13

Nantong Zhiyun attack 1.38 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Guizhou Zhicheng scores more

33%

level

28%

Nantong Zhiyun scores more

40%

Nantong Zhiyun at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nantong Zhiyun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff