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Nantong Haimen Codion vs Hunan Billows FC — League Two 2022

Nantong Haimen Codion
Nantong Haimen Codion
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hunan Billows FC
Hunan Billows FC
10/21/2023League TwoLeague Two · Relegation Round - 8Haimen Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Nantong Haimen Codion57%
×Draw23%
Hunan Billows FC20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nantong Haimen Codion
1.82
Hunan Billows FC
0.99

Nantong Haimen Codion creates 84% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 33 away

creates per match

Nantong Haimen Codion
1.73
Hunan Billows FC
0.94

allows per match

Nantong Haimen Codion
1.05
Hunan Billows FC
1.91

finishing

Nantong Haimen Codion+0.00on par
Hunan Billows FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nantong Haimen Codion ↓

Hunan Billows FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Nantong Haimen Codion or draw
80%
Nantong Haimen Codion or Hunan Billows FC
77%
Draw or Hunan Billows FC
43%

Winning margin

Nantong Haimen Codion wins by 2+
32%
Hunan Billows FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Nantong Haimen Codion 1+ goals
84%
Nantong Haimen Codion 2+ goals
54%
Nantong Haimen Codion 3+ goals
27%
Hunan Billows FC 1+ goals
63%
Hunan Billows FC 2+ goals
26%
Hunan Billows FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Nantong Haimen Codion (draw refunded)
74%
Hunan Billows FC (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nantong Haimen Codion at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.05 · 55 matches

Hunan Billows FC away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.91 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nantong Haimen Codion attack 1.73 + Hunan Billows FC defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.82

Hunan Billows FC attack 0.94 + Nantong Haimen Codion defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Nantong Haimen Codion scores more
57%
level
23%
Hunan Billows FC scores more
20%

Nantong Haimen Codion at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Nantong Haimen Codion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nantong Haimen Codion vs Hunan Billows FC

Nantong Haimen Codion beat Hunan Billows FC 5-0 in League Two on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Haimen Sports Center Stadium in Nantong.