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Hunan Billows FC vs Nantong Haimen Codion — League Two 2022

Hunan Billows FC
Hunan Billows FC
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Nantong Haimen Codion
Nantong Haimen Codion
11/9/2022League TwoLeague Two · Relegation Round - 3Dalian Youth Football Training Base No. 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Hunan Billows FC28%
×Draw24%
Nantong Haimen Codion47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hunan Billows FC
1.21
Nantong Haimen Codion
1.64

Nantong Haimen Codion creates 36% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 55 away

creates per match

Hunan Billows FC
1.22
Nantong Haimen Codion
1.36

allows per match

Hunan Billows FC
1.91
Nantong Haimen Codion
1.20

finishing

Hunan Billows FC+0.00on par
Nantong Haimen Codion+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hunan Billows FC ↓

Nantong Haimen Codion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hunan Billows FC or draw
53%
Hunan Billows FC or Nantong Haimen Codion
76%
Draw or Nantong Haimen Codion
72%

Winning margin

Hunan Billows FC wins by 2+
12%
Nantong Haimen Codion wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Hunan Billows FC 1+ goals
70%
Hunan Billows FC 2+ goals
34%
Hunan Billows FC 3+ goals
12%
Nantong Haimen Codion 1+ goals
81%
Nantong Haimen Codion 2+ goals
49%
Nantong Haimen Codion 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Hunan Billows FC (draw refunded)
37%
Nantong Haimen Codion (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hunan Billows FC at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.91 · 32 matches

Nantong Haimen Codion away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.20 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hunan Billows FC attack 1.22 + Nantong Haimen Codion defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.21

Nantong Haimen Codion attack 1.36 + Hunan Billows FC defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hunan Billows FC scores more
28%
level
24%
Nantong Haimen Codion scores more
47%

Nantong Haimen Codion at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Nantong Haimen Codion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Hunan Billows FC 0–3 Nantong Haimen Codion

Nantong Haimen Codion beat Hunan Billows FC 3-0 in League Two on November 9, 2022.

The match was played at Dalian Youth Football Training Base No. 9 in Dalian.