Nantong Haimen Codion 0–1 Dantong Hantong

Nantong Haimen Codion

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Dantong Hantong

8/4/2022

League Two · Round 7Yancheng Yufeng Football Training Base Field 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Nantong Haimen Codion35%

×Draw28%

Dantong Hantong37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nantong Haimen CodionExpected goals in this matchDantong Hantong

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.21

Nantong Haimen Codion

1.18

Dantong Hantong

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 8 away

1.73

creates per match

1.38

1.05

allows per match

0.63

creates per match

Nantong Haimen Codion

1.73

Dantong Hantong

1.38

allows per match

Nantong Haimen Codion

1.05

Dantong Hantong

0.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nantong Haimen Codion+0.00on par

Dantong Hantong+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nantong Haimen Codion ↓

Dantong Hantong →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Nantong Haimen Codion or draw

63%

Nantong Haimen Codion or Dantong Hantong

72%

Draw or Dantong Hantong

65%

Winning margin

Nantong Haimen Codion wins by 2+

15%

Dantong Hantong wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Nantong Haimen Codion 1+ goals

69%

Nantong Haimen Codion 2+ goals

33%

Nantong Haimen Codion 3+ goals

12%

Dantong Hantong 1+ goals

70%

Dantong Hantong 2+ goals

34%

Dantong Hantong 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Nantong Haimen Codion (draw refunded)

49%

Dantong Hantong (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nantong Haimen Codion at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.05 · 55 matches

Dantong Hantong away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nantong Haimen Codion attack 1.73 + Dantong Hantong defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.18

Dantong Hantong attack 1.38 + Nantong Haimen Codion defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Nantong Haimen Codion scores more

35%

level

28%

Dantong Hantong scores more

37%

Dantong Hantong at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Dantong Hantong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff