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Dantong Hantong vs Nantong Haimen Codion — League Two 2022

Dantong Hantong
Dantong Hantong
FT
0 – 2
Nantong Haimen Codion
Nantong Haimen Codion
7/10/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 2Yancheng Yufeng Football Training Base Field 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dantong Hantong32%
×Draw31%
Nantong Haimen Codion37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dantong Hantong
0.95
Nantong Haimen Codion
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 55 away

creates per match

Dantong Hantong
0.71
Nantong Haimen Codion
1.36

allows per match

Dantong Hantong
0.71
Nantong Haimen Codion
1.20

finishing

Dantong Hantong+0.00on par
Nantong Haimen Codion+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dantong Hantong ↓

Nantong Haimen Codion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Dantong Hantong or draw
63%
Dantong Hantong or Nantong Haimen Codion
69%
Draw or Nantong Haimen Codion
68%

Winning margin

Dantong Hantong wins by 2+
12%
Nantong Haimen Codion wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dantong Hantong 1+ goals
61%
Dantong Hantong 2+ goals
25%
Dantong Hantong 3+ goals
7%
Nantong Haimen Codion 1+ goals
65%
Nantong Haimen Codion 2+ goals
28%
Nantong Haimen Codion 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dantong Hantong (draw refunded)
47%
Nantong Haimen Codion (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dantong Hantong at home — creates 0.71, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Nantong Haimen Codion away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.20 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dantong Hantong attack 0.71 + Nantong Haimen Codion defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.95

Nantong Haimen Codion attack 1.36 + Dantong Hantong defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Dantong Hantong scores more
32%
level
31%
Nantong Haimen Codion scores more
37%

Nantong Haimen Codion at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Nantong Haimen Codion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dantong Hantong vs Nantong Haimen Codion

Nantong Haimen Codion beat Dantong Hantong 2-0 in League Two on July 10, 2022.

The match was played at Yancheng Yufeng Football Training Base Field 2 in Yancheng.