Nantes 5–3 Lorient: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NantesExpected goals in this matchLorient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.25

Nantes

1.46

Lorient

1.25

Nantes creates 17% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 26 away

1.21

creates per match

1.04

1.45

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Nantes

1.21

Lorient

1.04

allows per match

Nantes

1.45

Lorient

1.70

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Nantes+0.12scores more

Lorient-0.04on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nantes ↓

Lorient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Nantes or draw

68%

Nantes or Lorient

74%

Draw or Lorient

58%

Winning margin

Nantes wins by 2+

20%

Lorient wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Nantes 1+ goals

77%

Nantes 2+ goals

43%

Nantes 3+ goals

18%

Lorient 1+ goals

71%

Lorient 2+ goals

36%

Lorient 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Nantes (draw refunded)

56%

Lorient (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nantes at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.45 · 18 matches

Lorient away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.70 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nantes attack 1.21 + Lorient defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.46

Lorient attack 1.04 + Nantes defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Nantes scores more

42%

level

26%

Lorient scores more

32%

Nantes at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nantes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

M. Simon

Nantes · M

8.3

Match Events

6'

E. Kroupi↳ V. Le Goff

42'

46'

53'

55'

60'

63'

Igor Silva← G. Kalulu

63'

S. Doucouré← E. Kroupi

63'

B. Mendy← V. Le Goff

74'

J. Makengo← J. Ponceau

75'

R. Faivre↳ S. Doucouré

80'

R. Pierre-Gabriel← J. Duverne

80'

Marquinhos← Mostafa Mohamed

81'

Rémy Descamps

83'

F. Mollet↳ M. Simon

85'

A. Tosin↳ R. Faivre

89'

S. Moutoussamy← F. Mollet

90+7'

Igor Silva

90+1'

Romain Faivre

90+9'

M. SimonPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NantesLorient

Overview

44%Possession56%

19Total Shots10

2.14Expected Goals (xG)1.74

4Corners2

8Fouls17

Shots

19Total Shots10

9On Target7

6Off Target2

4Blocked1

16Inside Box6

3Outside Box4

Passing

44%Possession56%

474Total Passes604

405Accurate Passes531

85%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls17

1Yellow Cards3