Lorient 0–1 Nantes: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Lorient

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Nantes

J. Castelletto 49'

2/24/2024

Ligue 1 · Round 23Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Lorient43%

×Draw27%

Nantes30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LorientExpected goals in this matchNantes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.10

Lorient

1.36

Nantes

1.10

Lorient creates 24% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 18 away

1.32

creates per match

1.03

1.17

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Lorient

1.32

Nantes

1.03

allows per match

Lorient

1.17

Nantes

1.41

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

Lorient+0.10scores more

Nantes-0.36scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lorient ↓

Nantes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Lorient or draw

70%

Lorient or Nantes

73%

Draw or Nantes

57%

Winning margin

Lorient wins by 2+

20%

Nantes wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Lorient 1+ goals

74%

Lorient 2+ goals

39%

Lorient 3+ goals

16%

Nantes 1+ goals

67%

Nantes 2+ goals

30%

Nantes 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Lorient (draw refunded)

59%

Nantes (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lorient at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.17 · 26 matches

Nantes away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.41 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lorient attack 1.32 + Nantes defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.36

Nantes attack 1.03 + Lorient defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lorient scores more

43%

level

27%

Nantes scores more

30%

Lorient at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lorient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

J. Castelletto

Nantes · D

7.7

Match Events

46'

T. Kadewere← Mostafa Mohamed

49'

J. Castelletto↳ M. Simon

63'

B. Dieng← A. Kari

64'

D. Yongwa← T. Le Bris

64'

A. Tosin← I. Louza

67'

Douglas Augusto

68'

M. Coco← J. Castelletto

68'

B. Traoré← M. Simon

69'

Nicolas Pallois

74'

S. Moutoussamy← Douglas Augusto

77'

E. Kroupi← M. Bamba

83'

G. Kalulu← P. Katseris

83'

J. Duverne← N. Cozza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LorientNantes

Overview

64%Possession36%

6Total Shots7

0.54Expected Goals (xG)0.47

3Corners8

11Fouls11

Shots

6Total Shots7

1On Target6

2Off Target1

3Blocked0

4Inside Box4

2Outside Box3

Passing

64%Possession36%

630Total Passes345

552Accurate Passes276

88%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls11

0Yellow Cards2

3Offsides3