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Nantes U19 vs HJK U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Nantes U19
Nantes U19
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
HJK U19
HJK U19
11/8/2023UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · 2nd RoundStade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Nantes U1955%
×Draw22%
HJK U1923%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nantes U19
1.96
HJK U19
1.21

Nantes U19 creates 62% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Nantes U19
2.20
HJK U19
1.43

allows per match

Nantes U19
1.00
HJK U19
1.71

finishing

Nantes U19+0.00on par
HJK U19+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nantes U19 ↓

HJK U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Nantes U19 or draw
77%
Nantes U19 or HJK U19
78%
Draw or HJK U19
45%

Winning margin

Nantes U19 wins by 2+
32%
HJK U19 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Nantes U19 1+ goals
86%
Nantes U19 2+ goals
58%
Nantes U19 3+ goals
31%
HJK U19 1+ goals
70%
HJK U19 2+ goals
34%
HJK U19 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Nantes U19 (draw refunded)
70%
HJK U19 (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nantes U19 at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

HJK U19 away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nantes U19 attack 2.20 + HJK U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.96

HJK U19 attack 1.43 + Nantes U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Nantes U19 scores more
55%
level
22%
HJK U19 scores more
23%

Nantes U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Nantes U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nantes U19 vs HJK U19

Nantes U19 beat HJK U19 1-0 in UEFA Youth League on November 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau in Nantes.