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HJK U19 vs Nantes U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

HJK U19
HJK U19
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nantes U19
Nantes U19
11/22/2023UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · 2nd RoundBolt Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

HJK U1940%
×Draw29%
Nantes U1931%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HJK U19
1.19
Nantes U19
1.00

HJK U19 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

HJK U19
1.67
Nantes U19
1.00

allows per match

HJK U19
1.00
Nantes U19
0.71

finishing

HJK U19+0.00on par
Nantes U19+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HJK U19 ↓

Nantes U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

HJK U19 or draw
69%
HJK U19 or Nantes U19
71%
Draw or Nantes U19
60%

Winning margin

HJK U19 wins by 2+
17%
Nantes U19 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

HJK U19 1+ goals
70%
HJK U19 2+ goals
33%
HJK U19 3+ goals
12%
Nantes U19 1+ goals
63%
Nantes U19 2+ goals
26%
Nantes U19 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

HJK U19 (draw refunded)
57%
Nantes U19 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HJK U19 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Nantes U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HJK U19 attack 1.67 + Nantes U19 defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.19

Nantes U19 attack 1.00 + HJK U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

HJK U19 scores more
40%
level
29%
Nantes U19 scores more
31%

HJK U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "HJK U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Youth League: HJK U19 1–0 Nantes U19

HJK U19 beat Nantes U19 1-0 in UEFA Youth League on November 22, 2023.

The match was played at Bolt Arena in Helsinki.