Nantes U19 1–2 Hibernian U19: Result & Stats

Nantes U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Hibernian U19

M. Johnson 17' (OG)

R. Molotnikov 48'

J. O'Connor 22'

11/2/2022

UEFA Youth League · 2nd RoundStade Marcel-Saupin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Nantes U1958%

×Draw25%

Hibernian U1917%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nantes U19Expected goals in this matchHibernian U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.75

Nantes U19

1.60

Hibernian U19

0.75

Nantes U19 creates 113% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

2.20

creates per match

0.50

1.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Nantes U19

2.20

Hibernian U19

0.50

allows per match

Nantes U19

1.00

Hibernian U19

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nantes U19+0.00on par

Hibernian U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nantes U19 ↓

Hibernian U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Nantes U19 or draw

83%

Nantes U19 or Hibernian U19

75%

Draw or Hibernian U19

42%

Winning margin

Nantes U19 wins by 2+

31%

Hibernian U19 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Nantes U19 1+ goals

80%

Nantes U19 2+ goals

47%

Nantes U19 3+ goals

22%

Hibernian U19 1+ goals

53%

Hibernian U19 2+ goals

17%

Hibernian U19 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Nantes U19 (draw refunded)

77%

Hibernian U19 (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nantes U19 at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Hibernian U19 away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nantes U19 attack 2.20 + Hibernian U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Hibernian U19 attack 0.50 + Nantes U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Nantes U19 scores more

58%

level

25%

Hibernian U19 scores more

17%

Nantes U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Nantes U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

M. JohnsonOwn goal

22'

36'

36'

48'

51'

54'

68'

B. Meupiyou Menadjou← S. Appuah

68'

E. Mafoumbi← K. Keita

71'

Malek Zaid← R. Molotnikov

78'

T. Fortun

81'

E. Lukoki Mateso← D. Gomes

85'

M. Johnson

88'

J. McCullock← J. OConnor

90+1'

M. Aiken

90+1'

M. Aiken

90+1'

A. Camara

Nantes

Hibernian

1

🥅

5

3

4

11

8

6

2

10

⚽

▼

Molotniko

7

Laidlaw

9

⚽

▼

16

33

32

4

▼

Keita

3

Fortun

8

▼

David

11

Assoumani

10

Mountsang

7

▼

Gomes

34

Mahamoud

18

▼

Appuah

Manager: P. Aristouy

54'▲A. Camara←▼T. David

68'▲B. Meupiyou Menadjou←▼S. Appuah

68'▲E. Mafoumbi←▼K. Keita

81'▲E. Lukoki Mateso←▼D. Gomes

Nantes U19 substitutes

19Camara6Menadjou23Mafoumbi9Mateso17Lukoki30Jounay20Tchangodei

Manager: S. Kean

71'▲Malek Zaid←▼R. Molotnikov

88'▲J. McCullock←▼J. OConnor

Hibernian U19 substitutes

14Zaid12McCullock15Khan16Smith17Mckenzie13Owens18Waugh

UEFA Youth League: Nantes U19 1–2 Hibernian U19

Hibernian U19 beat Nantes U19 2-1 in UEFA Youth League on November 2, 2022.

Goals: M. Johnson (17' o.g.), J. O'Connor (22'), R. Molotnikov (48').

The match was played at Stade Marcel-Saupin in Nantes.

Nantes U19 vs Hibernian U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Nantes U19 1–2 Hibernian U19