Hibernian U19 1–0 Nantes U19: Result & Stats

Hibernian U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Nantes U19

E. Laidlaw 75' (pen)

10/26/2022

UEFA Youth League · 2nd RoundEaster Road Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Hibernian U1944%

×Draw29%

Nantes U1927%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hibernian U19Expected goals in this matchNantes U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.90

Hibernian U19

1.25

Nantes U19

0.90

Hibernian U19 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.80

creates per match

1.00

0.80

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

Hibernian U19

1.80

Nantes U19

1.00

allows per match

Hibernian U19

0.80

Nantes U19

0.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hibernian U19+0.00on par

Nantes U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hibernian U19 ↓

Nantes U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Hibernian U19 or draw

73%

Hibernian U19 or Nantes U19

71%

Draw or Nantes U19

56%

Winning margin

Hibernian U19 wins by 2+

20%

Nantes U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Hibernian U19 1+ goals

71%

Hibernian U19 2+ goals

36%

Hibernian U19 3+ goals

13%

Nantes U19 1+ goals

59%

Nantes U19 2+ goals

23%

Nantes U19 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Hibernian U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Nantes U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hibernian U19 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Nantes U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hibernian U19 attack 1.80 + Nantes U19 defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.25

Nantes U19 attack 1.00 + Hibernian U19 defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hibernian U19 scores more

44%

level

29%

Nantes U19 scores more

27%

Hibernian U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hibernian U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

S. Ziani

46'

J. MacIntyre← J. McCullock

46'

R. Molotnikov← Malek Zaid

57'

K. Keita

58'

M. Aiken

61'

M. Johnson

67'

E. Lukoki Mateso← E. Mafoumbi

74'

K. Lukoki Fayasueka

75'

E. LaidlawPenalty

78'

S. Appuah← M. Acapandié

81'

D. Gomes← T. David

90'

J. Landers← J. OConnor

Hibernian

Nantes

1

Bonelli

5

Zeze

2

▼

4

3

35

8

▼

17

10

34

23

▼

1

5

3

2

▼

4

11

8

6

7

⚽

Laidlaw

9

▼

O'Connor

10

▼

Zaid

Manager: S. Kean

46'▲J. MacIntyre←▼J. McCullock

46'▲R. Molotnikov←▼Malek Zaid

90'▲J. Landers←▼J. OConnor

Hibernian U19 substitutes

14MacIntyre12Molotnikov16Landers15Khan13Owens17Holden18Waugh

Manager: P. Aristouy

67'▲E. Lukoki Mateso←▼E. Mafoumbi

78'▲S. Appuah←▼M. Acapandié

81'▲D. Gomes←▼T. David

Nantes U19 substitutes

9Mateso18Appuah7Gomes11Assoumani15Dosso16Mabon22Toure

Match Recap: Hibernian U19 vs Nantes U19

Hibernian U19 beat Nantes U19 1-0 in UEFA Youth League on October 26, 2022.

Goals: E. Laidlaw (75' pen).

The match was played at Easter Road Stadium in Edinburgh.

Hibernian U19 vs Nantes U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Hibernian U19 vs Nantes U19