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Nanjing City vs Jinan Xingzhou — League One 2018

Nanjing City
Nanjing City
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Jinan Xingzhou
Jinan Xingzhou
10/18/2023League OneLeague One · Round 27Youth Olympic Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nanjing City41%
×Draw28%
Jinan Xingzhou31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nanjing City
1.25
Jinan Xingzhou
1.06

Nanjing City creates 18% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 15 away

creates per match

Nanjing City
1.38
Jinan Xingzhou
1.07

allows per match

Nanjing City
1.05
Jinan Xingzhou
1.13

finishing

Nanjing City+0.00on par
Jinan Xingzhou+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nanjing City ↓

Jinan Xingzhou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Nanjing City or draw
69%
Nanjing City or Jinan Xingzhou
72%
Draw or Jinan Xingzhou
59%

Winning margin

Nanjing City wins by 2+
18%
Jinan Xingzhou wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Nanjing City 1+ goals
71%
Nanjing City 2+ goals
36%
Nanjing City 3+ goals
13%
Jinan Xingzhou 1+ goals
65%
Jinan Xingzhou 2+ goals
29%
Jinan Xingzhou 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Nanjing City (draw refunded)
56%
Jinan Xingzhou (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nanjing City at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.05 · 86 matches

Jinan Xingzhou away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nanjing City attack 1.38 + Jinan Xingzhou defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Jinan Xingzhou attack 1.07 + Nanjing City defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Nanjing City scores more
41%
level
28%
Jinan Xingzhou scores more
31%

Nanjing City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Nanjing City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nanjing City vs Jinan Xingzhou

Jinan Xingzhou beat Nanjing City 1-0 in League One on October 18, 2023.

The match was played at Youth Olympic Sports Park in Nanjing.