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Jinan Xingzhou vs Nanjing City — League One 2018

Jinan Xingzhou
Jinan Xingzhou
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Nanjing City
Nanjing City
7/2/2023League OneLeague One · Round 12Shandong Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jinan Xingzhou43%
×Draw28%
Nanjing City29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jinan Xingzhou
1.27
Nanjing City
0.98

Jinan Xingzhou creates 30% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 86 away

creates per match

Jinan Xingzhou
1.20
Nanjing City
1.03

allows per match

Jinan Xingzhou
0.93
Nanjing City
1.35

finishing

Jinan Xingzhou+0.00on par
Nanjing City+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jinan Xingzhou ↓

Nanjing City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Jinan Xingzhou or draw
71%
Jinan Xingzhou or Nanjing City
72%
Draw or Nanjing City
57%

Winning margin

Jinan Xingzhou wins by 2+
19%
Nanjing City wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Jinan Xingzhou 1+ goals
72%
Jinan Xingzhou 2+ goals
36%
Jinan Xingzhou 3+ goals
14%
Nanjing City 1+ goals
62%
Nanjing City 2+ goals
26%
Nanjing City 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Jinan Xingzhou (draw refunded)
60%
Nanjing City (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jinan Xingzhou at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Nanjing City away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.35 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jinan Xingzhou attack 1.20 + Nanjing City defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.27

Nanjing City attack 1.03 + Jinan Xingzhou defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Jinan Xingzhou scores more
43%
level
28%
Nanjing City scores more
29%

Jinan Xingzhou at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Jinan Xingzhou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jinan Xingzhou vs Nanjing City

Nanjing City beat Jinan Xingzhou 2-1 in League One on July 2, 2023.

The match was played at Shandong Provincial Stadium in Ji'nan.