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Nanjing City vs Guizhou Zhicheng — League One 2018

Nanjing City
Nanjing City
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Guizhou Zhicheng
Guizhou Zhicheng
7/28/2021League OneLeague One · 2nd Phase - 4Tazi Lake Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Nanjing City44%
×Draw27%
Guizhou Zhicheng29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nanjing City
1.38
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.05

Nanjing City creates 31% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 41 away

creates per match

Nanjing City
1.38
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.05

allows per match

Nanjing City
1.05
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.37

finishing

Nanjing City+0.00on par
Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nanjing City ↓

Guizhou Zhicheng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Nanjing City or draw
71%
Nanjing City or Guizhou Zhicheng
73%
Draw or Guizhou Zhicheng
56%

Winning margin

Nanjing City wins by 2+
21%
Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Nanjing City 1+ goals
75%
Nanjing City 2+ goals
40%
Nanjing City 3+ goals
16%
Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals
65%
Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals
28%
Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Nanjing City (draw refunded)
61%
Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nanjing City at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.05 · 86 matches

Guizhou Zhicheng away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.37 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nanjing City attack 1.38 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.38

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.05 + Nanjing City defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Nanjing City scores more
44%
level
27%
Guizhou Zhicheng scores more
29%

Nanjing City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nanjing City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nanjing City vs Guizhou Zhicheng

Guizhou Zhicheng beat Nanjing City 1-0 in League One on July 28, 2021.

The match was played at Tazi Lake Sports Centre in Wuhan.