Guizhou Zhicheng 1–2 Nanjing City: Result & Stats

Guizhou Zhicheng

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Nanjing City

8/17/2021

League One · 2nd Phase - 8Tazi Lake Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Guizhou Zhicheng42%

×Draw27%

Nanjing City31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guizhou ZhichengExpected goals in this matchNanjing City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.10

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.33

Nanjing City

1.10

Guizhou Zhicheng creates 21% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 86 away

1.30

creates per match

1.03

1.18

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.30

Nanjing City

1.03

allows per match

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.18

Nanjing City

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par

Nanjing City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guizhou Zhicheng ↓

Nanjing City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Guizhou Zhicheng or draw

69%

Guizhou Zhicheng or Nanjing City

73%

Draw or Nanjing City

58%

Winning margin

Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+

19%

Nanjing City wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals

74%

Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals

38%

Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals

15%

Nanjing City 1+ goals

67%

Nanjing City 2+ goals

30%

Nanjing City 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)

58%

Nanjing City (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guizhou Zhicheng at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.18 · 40 matches

Nanjing City away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.35 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.30 + Nanjing City defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.33

Nanjing City attack 1.03 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Guizhou Zhicheng scores more

42%

level

27%

Nanjing City scores more

31%

Guizhou Zhicheng at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Guizhou Zhicheng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff