Nanjing City 1–0 Dantong Hantong: Result & Stats

Nanjing City

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dantong Hantong

6/17/2023

League One · Round 10Youth Olympic Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nanjing City48%

×Draw28%

Dantong Hantong23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nanjing CityExpected goals in this matchDantong Hantong

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.82

Nanjing City

1.32

Dantong Hantong

0.82

Nanjing City creates 61% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 15 away

1.38

creates per match

0.60

1.05

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Nanjing City

1.38

Dantong Hantong

0.60

allows per match

Nanjing City

1.05

Dantong Hantong

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nanjing City+0.00on par

Dantong Hantong+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nanjing City ↓

Dantong Hantong →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Nanjing City or draw

77%

Nanjing City or Dantong Hantong

72%

Draw or Dantong Hantong

52%

Winning margin

Nanjing City wins by 2+

23%

Dantong Hantong wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Nanjing City 1+ goals

73%

Nanjing City 2+ goals

38%

Nanjing City 3+ goals

15%

Dantong Hantong 1+ goals

56%

Dantong Hantong 2+ goals

20%

Dantong Hantong 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Nanjing City (draw refunded)

68%

Dantong Hantong (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nanjing City at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.05 · 86 matches

Dantong Hantong away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nanjing City attack 1.38 + Dantong Hantong defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.32

Dantong Hantong attack 0.60 + Nanjing City defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Nanjing City scores more

48%

level

28%

Dantong Hantong scores more

23%

Nanjing City at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Nanjing City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff