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Dantong Hantong vs Nanjing City — League One 2018

Dantong Hantong
Dantong Hantong
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nanjing City
Nanjing City
10/10/2023League OneLeague One · Round 25Huludao City Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dantong Hantong40%
×Draw27%
Nanjing City33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dantong Hantong
1.31
Nanjing City
1.15

Dantong Hantong creates 14% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 86 away

creates per match

Dantong Hantong
1.27
Nanjing City
1.03

allows per match

Dantong Hantong
1.27
Nanjing City
1.35

finishing

Dantong Hantong+0.00on par
Nanjing City+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dantong Hantong ↓

Nanjing City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Dantong Hantong or draw
67%
Dantong Hantong or Nanjing City
73%
Draw or Nanjing City
60%

Winning margin

Dantong Hantong wins by 2+
18%
Nanjing City wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dantong Hantong 1+ goals
73%
Dantong Hantong 2+ goals
38%
Dantong Hantong 3+ goals
14%
Nanjing City 1+ goals
68%
Nanjing City 2+ goals
32%
Nanjing City 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dantong Hantong (draw refunded)
55%
Nanjing City (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dantong Hantong at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Nanjing City away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.35 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dantong Hantong attack 1.27 + Nanjing City defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.31

Nanjing City attack 1.03 + Dantong Hantong defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dantong Hantong scores more
40%
level
27%
Nanjing City scores more
33%

Dantong Hantong at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dantong Hantong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Dantong Hantong 0–0 Nanjing City

Dantong Hantong and Nanjing City drew 0-0 in League One on October 10, 2023.

The match was played at Huludao City Sports Center Stadium in Huludao.