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Nanjing City vs Beijing Baxy — League One 2018

Nanjing City
Nanjing City
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Beijing Baxy
Beijing Baxy
8/9/2022League OneLeague One · Round 14Jiangning Football Training Base Field No.2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Nanjing City47%
×Draw26%
Beijing Baxy27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nanjing City
1.47
Beijing Baxy
1.06

Nanjing City creates 39% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 71 away

creates per match

Nanjing City
1.38
Beijing Baxy
1.07

allows per match

Nanjing City
1.05
Beijing Baxy
1.56

finishing

Nanjing City+0.00on par
Beijing Baxy+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nanjing City ↓

Beijing Baxy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Nanjing City or draw
73%
Nanjing City or Beijing Baxy
74%
Draw or Beijing Baxy
53%

Winning margin

Nanjing City wins by 2+
23%
Beijing Baxy wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Nanjing City 1+ goals
77%
Nanjing City 2+ goals
43%
Nanjing City 3+ goals
18%
Beijing Baxy 1+ goals
65%
Beijing Baxy 2+ goals
29%
Beijing Baxy 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Nanjing City (draw refunded)
63%
Beijing Baxy (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nanjing City at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.05 · 86 matches

Beijing Baxy away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.56 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nanjing City attack 1.38 + Beijing Baxy defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.47

Beijing Baxy attack 1.07 + Nanjing City defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Nanjing City scores more
47%
level
26%
Beijing Baxy scores more
27%

Nanjing City at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Nanjing City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nanjing City 2 – 0 Beijing Baxy

Nanjing City beat Beijing Baxy 2-0 in League One on August 9, 2022.

The match was played at Jiangning Football Training Base Field No.2 in Nanjing.