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Beijing Baxy vs Nanjing City — League One 2018

Beijing Baxy
Beijing Baxy
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Nanjing City
Nanjing City
5/15/2021League OneLeague One · Round 5Jinzhou Binhai Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Beijing Baxy43%
×Draw27%
Nanjing City30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beijing Baxy
1.37
Nanjing City
1.09

Beijing Baxy creates 26% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 86 away

creates per match

Beijing Baxy
1.39
Nanjing City
1.03

allows per match

Beijing Baxy
1.15
Nanjing City
1.35

finishing

Beijing Baxy+0.00on par
Nanjing City+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Baxy ↓

Nanjing City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Beijing Baxy or draw
70%
Beijing Baxy or Nanjing City
73%
Draw or Nanjing City
57%

Winning margin

Beijing Baxy wins by 2+
20%
Nanjing City wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Beijing Baxy 1+ goals
75%
Beijing Baxy 2+ goals
40%
Beijing Baxy 3+ goals
16%
Nanjing City 1+ goals
66%
Nanjing City 2+ goals
30%
Nanjing City 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Beijing Baxy (draw refunded)
59%
Nanjing City (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Baxy at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.15 · 72 matches

Nanjing City away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.35 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Baxy attack 1.39 + Nanjing City defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.37

Nanjing City attack 1.03 + Beijing Baxy defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Beijing Baxy scores more
43%
level
27%
Nanjing City scores more
30%

Beijing Baxy at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Beijing Baxy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Beijing Baxy 0–1 Nanjing City

Nanjing City beat Beijing Baxy 1-0 in League One on May 15, 2021.

The match was played at Jinzhou Binhai Sports Center in Jinzhou.