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Namungo vs Kagera Sugar — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Namungo
Namungo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kagera Sugar
Kagera Sugar
3/5/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 20Majaliwa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Namungo46%
×Draw30%
Kagera Sugar25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Namungo
1.22
Kagera Sugar
0.81

Namungo creates 51% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 96 away

creates per match

Namungo
1.13
Kagera Sugar
0.75

allows per match

Namungo
0.88
Kagera Sugar
1.31

finishing

Namungo+0.00on par
Kagera Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Namungo ↓

Kagera Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Namungo or draw
75%
Namungo or Kagera Sugar
70%
Draw or Kagera Sugar
54%

Winning margin

Namungo wins by 2+
20%
Kagera Sugar wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Namungo 1+ goals
70%
Namungo 2+ goals
34%
Namungo 3+ goals
12%
Kagera Sugar 1+ goals
56%
Kagera Sugar 2+ goals
19%
Kagera Sugar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Namungo (draw refunded)
65%
Kagera Sugar (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Namungo at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.88 · 111 matches

Kagera Sugar away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.31 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Namungo attack 1.13 + Kagera Sugar defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.22

Kagera Sugar attack 0.75 + Namungo defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Namungo scores more
46%
level
30%
Kagera Sugar scores more
25%

Namungo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Namungo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Namungo 1–0 Kagera Sugar

Namungo beat Kagera Sugar 1-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on March 5, 2024.

The match was played at Majaliwa Stadium in Ruangwa.