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Kagera Sugar vs Namungo — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Kagera Sugar
Kagera Sugar
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Namungo
Namungo
10/4/2023Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 5Kaitaba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Kagera Sugar39%
×Draw31%
Namungo30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kagera Sugar
1.08
Namungo
0.90

Kagera Sugar creates 20% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 110 away

creates per match

Kagera Sugar
0.97
Namungo
0.87

allows per match

Kagera Sugar
0.92
Namungo
1.20

finishing

Kagera Sugar+0.00on par
Namungo+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kagera Sugar ↓

Namungo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Kagera Sugar or draw
70%
Kagera Sugar or Namungo
69%
Draw or Namungo
61%

Winning margin

Kagera Sugar wins by 2+
16%
Namungo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kagera Sugar 1+ goals
66%
Kagera Sugar 2+ goals
29%
Kagera Sugar 3+ goals
10%
Namungo 1+ goals
59%
Namungo 2+ goals
23%
Namungo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kagera Sugar (draw refunded)
57%
Namungo (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kagera Sugar at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.92 · 95 matches

Namungo away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.20 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kagera Sugar attack 0.97 + Namungo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.08

Namungo attack 0.87 + Kagera Sugar defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kagera Sugar scores more
39%
level
31%
Namungo scores more
30%

Kagera Sugar at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kagera Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kagera Sugar vs Namungo

Kagera Sugar and Namungo drew 1-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on October 4, 2023.

The match was played at Kaitaba Stadium in Bukoba.