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Namlha vs Druk Lhayul — Premier League 2023

Namlha
Namlha
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Druk Lhayul
Druk Lhayul
8/22/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Changlimithang National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Namlha25%
×Draw18%
Druk Lhayul57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Namlha
1.83
Druk Lhayul
2.78

Druk Lhayul creates 52% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Namlha
0.78
Druk Lhayul
1.78

allows per match

Namlha
3.78
Druk Lhayul
2.89

finishing

Namlha+0.00on par
Druk Lhayul+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Namlha ↓

Druk Lhayul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Namlha or draw
43%
Namlha or Druk Lhayul
82%
Draw or Druk Lhayul
75%

Winning margin

Namlha wins by 2+
12%
Druk Lhayul wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Namlha 1+ goals
84%
Namlha 2+ goals
54%
Namlha 3+ goals
28%
Druk Lhayul 1+ goals
94%
Druk Lhayul 2+ goals
76%
Druk Lhayul 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Namlha (draw refunded)
30%
Druk Lhayul (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Namlha at home — creates 0.78, concedes 3.78 · 9 matches

Druk Lhayul away — creates 1.78, concedes 2.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Namlha attack 0.78 + Druk Lhayul defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 1.83

Druk Lhayul attack 1.78 + Namlha defence 3.78 → ÷2 → 2.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Namlha scores more
25%
level
18%
Druk Lhayul scores more
57%

Druk Lhayul at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Druk Lhayul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Namlha vs Druk Lhayul

Druk Lhayul beat Namlha 3-1 in Premier League on August 22, 2023.

The match was played at Changlimithang National Stadium in Thimphu.