Druk Lhayul 5–1 Namlha: Result & Stats

Druk Lhayul

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Namlha

11/4/2023

Premier League · Round 6Changlimithang National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Druk Lhayul73%

×Draw13%

Namlha14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Druk LhayulExpected goals in this matchNamlha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.28

2.00

Druk Lhayul

4.28

Namlha

2.00

Druk Lhayul creates 114% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

3.44

creates per match

0.89

3.11

allows per match

5.11

creates per match

Druk Lhayul

3.44

Namlha

0.89

allows per match

Druk Lhayul

3.11

Namlha

5.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Druk Lhayul+0.00on par

Namlha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over94
Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes85
No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Druk Lhayul ↓

Namlha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–01%

1–12%

1–22%

1–31%

1–41%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–03%

4–16%

4–26%

4–34%

4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (6%) · grid covers 64% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

94%6%3.5

85%15%4.5

71%29%

Double chance

Druk Lhayul or draw

86%

Druk Lhayul or Namlha

87%

Draw or Namlha

27%

Winning margin

Druk Lhayul wins by 2+

56%

Namlha wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Druk Lhayul 1+ goals

98%

Druk Lhayul 2+ goals

91%

Druk Lhayul 3+ goals

77%

Namlha 1+ goals

86%

Namlha 2+ goals

59%

Namlha 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Druk Lhayul (draw refunded)

83%

Namlha (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

83%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Druk Lhayul at home — creates 3.44, concedes 3.11 · 9 matches

Namlha away — creates 0.89, concedes 5.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Druk Lhayul attack 3.44 + Namlha defence 5.11 → ÷2 → 4.28

Namlha attack 0.89 + Druk Lhayul defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Druk Lhayul scores more

73%

level

13%

Namlha scores more

14%

Druk Lhayul at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Druk Lhayul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff