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Námestovo vs Kováčová — 3. liga - Center 2020

Námestovo
Námestovo
FT
0 – 0
Kováčová
Kováčová
8/15/20203. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 3Štadión MŠK Námestovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Námestovo66%
×Draw19%
Kováčová14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Námestovo
2.21
Kováčová
0.92

Námestovo creates 140% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 23 away

creates per match

Námestovo
2.95
Kováčová
1.13

allows per match

Námestovo
0.71
Kováčová
1.48

finishing

Námestovo+0.00on par
Kováčová+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Námestovo ↓

Kováčová →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Námestovo or draw
86%
Námestovo or Kováčová
81%
Draw or Kováčová
34%

Winning margin

Námestovo wins by 2+
43%
Kováčová wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Námestovo 1+ goals
89%
Námestovo 2+ goals
65%
Námestovo 3+ goals
38%
Kováčová 1+ goals
60%
Kováčová 2+ goals
23%
Kováčová 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Námestovo (draw refunded)
82%
Kováčová (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Námestovo at home — creates 2.95, concedes 0.71 · 21 matches

Kováčová away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.48 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Námestovo attack 2.95 + Kováčová defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 2.21

Kováčová attack 1.13 + Námestovo defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Námestovo scores more
66%
level
19%
Kováčová scores more
14%

Námestovo at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Námestovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Námestovo vs Kováčová

Námestovo and Kováčová drew 0-0 in 3. liga - Center on August 15, 2020.

The match was played at Štadión MŠK Námestovo in Námestovo.