Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kováčová vs Námestovo — 3. liga - Center 2020

Kováčová
Kováčová
CANC
13:30
Námestovo
Námestovo
4/11/20213. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 18Štadión ŠK Prameň Kováčová

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Kováčová28%
×Draw24%
Námestovo48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kováčová
1.28
Námestovo
1.73

Námestovo creates 35% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 20 away

creates per match

Kováčová
1.41
Námestovo
2.10

allows per match

Kováčová
1.36
Námestovo
1.15

finishing

Kováčová+0.00on par
Námestovo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kováčová ↓

Námestovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Kováčová or draw
52%
Kováčová or Námestovo
76%
Draw or Námestovo
72%

Winning margin

Kováčová wins by 2+
12%
Námestovo wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Kováčová 1+ goals
72%
Kováčová 2+ goals
37%
Kováčová 3+ goals
14%
Námestovo 1+ goals
82%
Námestovo 2+ goals
52%
Námestovo 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Kováčová (draw refunded)
37%
Námestovo (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kováčová at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

Námestovo away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kováčová attack 1.41 + Námestovo defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.28

Námestovo attack 2.10 + Kováčová defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kováčová scores more
28%
level
24%
Námestovo scores more
48%

Námestovo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Námestovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kováčová face Námestovo (3. liga - Center)

3. liga - Center returns with Kováčová hosting Námestovo. Match starts April 11, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Kováčová host Námestovo at Štadión ŠK Prameň Kováčová.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.