Namdhari 2–1 SC Bengaluru: Result & Stats

Namdhari

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

SC Bengaluru

3/30/2025

I-League · Round 21Namdhari Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Namdhari57%

×Draw22%

SC Bengaluru21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NamdhariExpected goals in this matchSC Bengaluru

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.11

Namdhari

1.94

SC Bengaluru

1.11

Namdhari creates 75% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 11 away

1.32

creates per match

0.73

1.50

allows per match

2.55

creates per match

Namdhari

1.32

SC Bengaluru

0.73

allows per match

Namdhari

1.50

SC Bengaluru

2.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Namdhari+0.00on par

SC Bengaluru+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Namdhari ↓

SC Bengaluru →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Namdhari or draw

79%

Namdhari or SC Bengaluru

78%

Draw or SC Bengaluru

43%

Winning margin

Namdhari wins by 2+

33%

SC Bengaluru wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Namdhari 1+ goals

86%

Namdhari 2+ goals

58%

Namdhari 3+ goals

30%

SC Bengaluru 1+ goals

67%

SC Bengaluru 2+ goals

30%

SC Bengaluru 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Namdhari (draw refunded)

72%

SC Bengaluru (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Namdhari at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.50 · 28 matches

SC Bengaluru away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Namdhari attack 1.32 + SC Bengaluru defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 1.94

SC Bengaluru attack 0.73 + Namdhari defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Namdhari scores more

57%

level

22%

SC Bengaluru scores more

21%

Namdhari at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Namdhari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff