Nakuru AllStars 0–1 Nairobi City Stars

Nakuru AllStars

FT

0 – 1

Nairobi City Stars

9/5/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 31

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nakuru AllStars33%

×Draw29%

Nairobi City Stars38%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nakuru AllStarsExpected goals in this matchNairobi City Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.14

Nakuru AllStars

1.05

Nairobi City Stars

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 35 away

0.82

creates per match

0.86

1.41

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Nakuru AllStars

0.82

Nairobi City Stars

0.86

allows per match

Nakuru AllStars

1.41

Nairobi City Stars

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nakuru AllStars+0.00on par

Nairobi City Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakuru AllStars ↓

Nairobi City Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Nakuru AllStars or draw

62%

Nakuru AllStars or Nairobi City Stars

71%

Draw or Nairobi City Stars

67%

Winning margin

Nakuru AllStars wins by 2+

13%

Nairobi City Stars wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Nakuru AllStars 1+ goals

65%

Nakuru AllStars 2+ goals

28%

Nakuru AllStars 3+ goals

9%

Nairobi City Stars 1+ goals

68%

Nairobi City Stars 2+ goals

32%

Nairobi City Stars 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Nakuru AllStars (draw refunded)

47%

Nairobi City Stars (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakuru AllStars at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Nairobi City Stars away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.29 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakuru AllStars attack 0.82 + Nairobi City Stars defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.05

Nairobi City Stars attack 0.86 + Nakuru AllStars defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Nakuru AllStars scores more

33%

level

29%

Nairobi City Stars scores more

38%

Nairobi City Stars at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nairobi City Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff