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Nairobi City Stars vs Nakuru AllStars — Super League 2018

Nairobi City Stars
Nairobi City Stars
FT
0 – 0
Nakuru AllStars
Nakuru AllStars
4/14/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Nairobi City Stars54%
×Draw27%
Nakuru AllStars19%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nairobi City Stars
1.43
Nakuru AllStars
0.72

Nairobi City Stars creates 99% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 16 away

creates per match

Nairobi City Stars
1.11
Nakuru AllStars
0.50

allows per match

Nairobi City Stars
0.95
Nakuru AllStars
1.75

finishing

Nairobi City Stars+0.00on par
Nakuru AllStars+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nairobi City Stars ↓

Nakuru AllStars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Nairobi City Stars or draw
81%
Nairobi City Stars or Nakuru AllStars
73%
Draw or Nakuru AllStars
46%

Winning margin

Nairobi City Stars wins by 2+
27%
Nakuru AllStars wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Nairobi City Stars 1+ goals
76%
Nairobi City Stars 2+ goals
42%
Nairobi City Stars 3+ goals
17%
Nakuru AllStars 1+ goals
51%
Nakuru AllStars 2+ goals
16%
Nakuru AllStars 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Nairobi City Stars (draw refunded)
74%
Nakuru AllStars (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nairobi City Stars at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.95 · 37 matches

Nakuru AllStars away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nairobi City Stars attack 1.11 + Nakuru AllStars defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.43

Nakuru AllStars attack 0.50 + Nairobi City Stars defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Nairobi City Stars scores more
54%
level
27%
Nakuru AllStars scores more
19%

Nairobi City Stars at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Nairobi City Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Nairobi City Stars 0–0 Nakuru AllStars

Nairobi City Stars and Nakuru AllStars drew 0-0 in Super League on April 14, 2018.