Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Nakuru AllStars vs Modern Coast Rangers — Super League 2018

Nakuru AllStars
Nakuru AllStars
FT
2 – 1
Modern Coast Rangers
Modern Coast Rangers
5/25/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Nakuru AllStars34%
×Draw28%
Modern Coast Rangers38%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nakuru AllStars
1.13
Modern Coast Rangers
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 18 away

creates per match

Nakuru AllStars
0.75
Modern Coast Rangers
0.89

allows per match

Nakuru AllStars
1.50
Modern Coast Rangers
1.50

finishing

Nakuru AllStars+0.00on par
Modern Coast Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakuru AllStars ↓

Modern Coast Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Nakuru AllStars or draw
62%
Nakuru AllStars or Modern Coast Rangers
72%
Draw or Modern Coast Rangers
66%

Winning margin

Nakuru AllStars wins by 2+
14%
Modern Coast Rangers wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Nakuru AllStars 1+ goals
68%
Nakuru AllStars 2+ goals
31%
Nakuru AllStars 3+ goals
11%
Modern Coast Rangers 1+ goals
70%
Modern Coast Rangers 2+ goals
34%
Modern Coast Rangers 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Nakuru AllStars (draw refunded)
48%
Modern Coast Rangers (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakuru AllStars at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

Modern Coast Rangers away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakuru AllStars attack 0.75 + Modern Coast Rangers defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.13

Modern Coast Rangers attack 0.89 + Nakuru AllStars defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Nakuru AllStars scores more
34%
level
28%
Modern Coast Rangers scores more
38%

Modern Coast Rangers at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Modern Coast Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nakuru AllStars vs Modern Coast Rangers

Nakuru AllStars beat Modern Coast Rangers 2-1 in Super League on May 25, 2018.