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Modern Coast Rangers vs Nakuru AllStars — Super League 2018

Modern Coast Rangers
Modern Coast Rangers
FT
2 – 0
Nakuru AllStars
Nakuru AllStars
10/13/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 37

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Modern Coast Rangers56%
×Draw27%
Nakuru AllStars17%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Modern Coast Rangers
1.43
Nakuru AllStars
0.64

Modern Coast Rangers creates 123% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 15 away

creates per match

Modern Coast Rangers
1.19
Nakuru AllStars
0.47

allows per match

Modern Coast Rangers
0.81
Nakuru AllStars
1.67

finishing

Modern Coast Rangers+0.00on par
Nakuru AllStars+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modern Coast Rangers ↓

Nakuru AllStars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Modern Coast Rangers or draw
83%
Modern Coast Rangers or Nakuru AllStars
73%
Draw or Nakuru AllStars
44%

Winning margin

Modern Coast Rangers wins by 2+
29%
Nakuru AllStars wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Modern Coast Rangers 1+ goals
76%
Modern Coast Rangers 2+ goals
42%
Modern Coast Rangers 3+ goals
17%
Nakuru AllStars 1+ goals
47%
Nakuru AllStars 2+ goals
14%
Nakuru AllStars 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Modern Coast Rangers (draw refunded)
77%
Nakuru AllStars (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modern Coast Rangers at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

Nakuru AllStars away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modern Coast Rangers attack 1.19 + Nakuru AllStars defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.43

Nakuru AllStars attack 0.47 + Modern Coast Rangers defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Modern Coast Rangers scores more
56%
level
27%
Nakuru AllStars scores more
17%

Modern Coast Rangers at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Modern Coast Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Modern Coast Rangers 2–0 Nakuru AllStars

Modern Coast Rangers beat Nakuru AllStars 2-0 in Super League on October 13, 2018.