Nakuru AllStars 1–1 Kisumu All Stars

Nakuru AllStars

FT

1 – 1

Kisumu All Stars

8/5/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nakuru AllStars36%

×Draw28%

Kisumu All Stars36%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nakuru AllStarsExpected goals in this matchKisumu All Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.15

Nakuru AllStars

1.16

Kisumu All Stars

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 102 away

0.82

creates per match

0.89

1.41

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Nakuru AllStars

0.82

Kisumu All Stars

0.89

allows per match

Nakuru AllStars

1.41

Kisumu All Stars

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nakuru AllStars+0.00on par

Kisumu All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakuru AllStars ↓

Kisumu All Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Nakuru AllStars or draw

64%

Nakuru AllStars or Kisumu All Stars

72%

Draw or Kisumu All Stars

64%

Winning margin

Nakuru AllStars wins by 2+

15%

Kisumu All Stars wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Nakuru AllStars 1+ goals

69%

Nakuru AllStars 2+ goals

32%

Nakuru AllStars 3+ goals

11%

Kisumu All Stars 1+ goals

68%

Kisumu All Stars 2+ goals

32%

Kisumu All Stars 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Nakuru AllStars (draw refunded)

50%

Kisumu All Stars (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakuru AllStars at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Kisumu All Stars away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.49 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakuru AllStars attack 0.82 + Kisumu All Stars defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.16

Kisumu All Stars attack 0.89 + Nakuru AllStars defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Nakuru AllStars scores more

36%

level

28%

Kisumu All Stars scores more

36%

Nakuru AllStars at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Nakuru AllStars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff