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Kisumu All Stars vs Nakuru AllStars — Super League 2018

Kisumu All Stars
Kisumu All Stars
FT
1 – 0
Nakuru AllStars
Nakuru AllStars
3/18/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kisumu All Stars59%
×Draw25%
Nakuru AllStars16%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kisumu All Stars
1.58
Nakuru AllStars
0.67

Kisumu All Stars creates 136% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 16 away

creates per match

Kisumu All Stars
1.41
Nakuru AllStars
0.50

allows per match

Kisumu All Stars
0.83
Nakuru AllStars
1.75

finishing

Kisumu All Stars+0.00on par
Nakuru AllStars+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kisumu All Stars ↓

Nakuru AllStars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kisumu All Stars or draw
84%
Kisumu All Stars or Nakuru AllStars
75%
Draw or Nakuru AllStars
41%

Winning margin

Kisumu All Stars wins by 2+
32%
Nakuru AllStars wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Kisumu All Stars 1+ goals
79%
Kisumu All Stars 2+ goals
47%
Kisumu All Stars 3+ goals
21%
Nakuru AllStars 1+ goals
49%
Nakuru AllStars 2+ goals
15%
Nakuru AllStars 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Kisumu All Stars (draw refunded)
79%
Nakuru AllStars (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kisumu All Stars at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.83 · 106 matches

Nakuru AllStars away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kisumu All Stars attack 1.41 + Nakuru AllStars defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.58

Nakuru AllStars attack 0.50 + Kisumu All Stars defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Kisumu All Stars scores more
59%
level
25%
Nakuru AllStars scores more
16%

Kisumu All Stars at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Kisumu All Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kisumu All Stars vs Nakuru AllStars

Kisumu All Stars beat Nakuru AllStars 1-0 in Super League on March 18, 2018.