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Nakuru AllStars vs Isibania — Super League 2018

Nakuru AllStars
Nakuru AllStars
FT
3 – 0
Isibania
Isibania
6/17/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nakuru AllStars48%
×Draw27%
Isibania25%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nakuru AllStars
1.38
Isibania
0.92

Nakuru AllStars creates 50% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

creates per match

Nakuru AllStars
0.82
Isibania
0.44

allows per match

Nakuru AllStars
1.41
Isibania
1.94

finishing

Nakuru AllStars+0.00on par
Isibania+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakuru AllStars ↓

Isibania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Nakuru AllStars or draw
75%
Nakuru AllStars or Isibania
73%
Draw or Isibania
52%

Winning margin

Nakuru AllStars wins by 2+
23%
Isibania wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Nakuru AllStars 1+ goals
75%
Nakuru AllStars 2+ goals
40%
Nakuru AllStars 3+ goals
16%
Isibania 1+ goals
60%
Isibania 2+ goals
23%
Isibania 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Nakuru AllStars (draw refunded)
65%
Isibania (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakuru AllStars at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Isibania away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakuru AllStars attack 0.82 + Isibania defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.38

Isibania attack 0.44 + Nakuru AllStars defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Nakuru AllStars scores more
48%
level
27%
Isibania scores more
25%

Nakuru AllStars at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Nakuru AllStars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nakuru AllStars vs Isibania

Nakuru AllStars beat Isibania 3-0 in Super League on June 17, 2018.