Isibania 3–1 Nakuru AllStars: Result & Stats

Isibania

FT

3 – 1

Nakuru AllStars

2/10/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Isibania44%

×Draw29%

Nakuru AllStars28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IsibaniaExpected goals in this matchNakuru AllStars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.93

Isibania

1.25

Nakuru AllStars

0.93

Isibania creates 34% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 15 away

0.78

creates per match

0.47

1.39

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Isibania

0.78

Nakuru AllStars

0.47

allows per match

Isibania

1.39

Nakuru AllStars

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Isibania+0.00on par

Nakuru AllStars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Isibania ↓

Nakuru AllStars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Isibania or draw

72%

Isibania or Nakuru AllStars

71%

Draw or Nakuru AllStars

56%

Winning margin

Isibania wins by 2+

20%

Nakuru AllStars wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Isibania 1+ goals

71%

Isibania 2+ goals

36%

Isibania 3+ goals

13%

Nakuru AllStars 1+ goals

61%

Nakuru AllStars 2+ goals

24%

Nakuru AllStars 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Isibania (draw refunded)

61%

Nakuru AllStars (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Isibania at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

Nakuru AllStars away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Isibania attack 0.78 + Nakuru AllStars defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.25

Nakuru AllStars attack 0.47 + Isibania defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Isibania scores more

44%

level

29%

Nakuru AllStars scores more

28%

Isibania at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Isibania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff