Nakuru AllStars 1–0 Green Commandos: Result & Stats

Nakuru AllStars

FT

1 – 0

Green Commandos

4/21/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Nakuru AllStars40%

×Draw28%

Green Commandos33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nakuru AllStarsExpected goals in this matchGreen Commandos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.13

Nakuru AllStars

1.28

Green Commandos

1.13

Nakuru AllStars creates 13% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

0.75

creates per match

0.75

1.50

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Nakuru AllStars

0.75

Green Commandos

0.75

allows per match

Nakuru AllStars

1.50

Green Commandos

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nakuru AllStars+0.00on par

Green Commandos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakuru AllStars ↓

Green Commandos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Nakuru AllStars or draw

67%

Nakuru AllStars or Green Commandos

72%

Draw or Green Commandos

60%

Winning margin

Nakuru AllStars wins by 2+

18%

Green Commandos wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Nakuru AllStars 1+ goals

72%

Nakuru AllStars 2+ goals

37%

Nakuru AllStars 3+ goals

14%

Green Commandos 1+ goals

68%

Green Commandos 2+ goals

31%

Green Commandos 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Nakuru AllStars (draw refunded)

55%

Green Commandos (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakuru AllStars at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

Green Commandos away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakuru AllStars attack 0.75 + Green Commandos defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.28

Green Commandos attack 0.75 + Nakuru AllStars defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Nakuru AllStars scores more

40%

level

28%

Green Commandos scores more

33%

Nakuru AllStars at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nakuru AllStars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff