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Green Commandos vs Nakuru AllStars — Super League 2018

Green Commandos
Green Commandos
FT
2 – 1
Nakuru AllStars
Nakuru AllStars
9/9/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Green Commandos48%
×Draw26%
Nakuru AllStars26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Green Commandos
1.51
Nakuru AllStars
1.05

Green Commandos creates 44% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 14 away

creates per match

Green Commandos
1.39
Nakuru AllStars
0.43

allows per match

Green Commandos
1.67
Nakuru AllStars
1.64

finishing

Green Commandos+0.00on par
Nakuru AllStars+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Green Commandos ↓

Nakuru AllStars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Green Commandos or draw
74%
Green Commandos or Nakuru AllStars
74%
Draw or Nakuru AllStars
52%

Winning margin

Green Commandos wins by 2+
24%
Nakuru AllStars wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Green Commandos 1+ goals
78%
Green Commandos 2+ goals
44%
Green Commandos 3+ goals
19%
Nakuru AllStars 1+ goals
65%
Nakuru AllStars 2+ goals
28%
Nakuru AllStars 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Green Commandos (draw refunded)
64%
Nakuru AllStars (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Green Commandos at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

Nakuru AllStars away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Green Commandos attack 1.39 + Nakuru AllStars defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.51

Nakuru AllStars attack 0.43 + Green Commandos defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Green Commandos scores more
48%
level
26%
Nakuru AllStars scores more
26%

Green Commandos at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Green Commandos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Green Commandos 2–1 Nakuru AllStars

Green Commandos beat Nakuru AllStars 2-1 in Super League on September 9, 2018.