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Nakuru AllStars vs Coast Stima — Super League 2018

Nakuru AllStars
Nakuru AllStars
FT
0 – 1
Coast Stima
Coast Stima
9/16/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 33

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nakuru AllStars36%
×Draw29%
Coast Stima35%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nakuru AllStars
1.10
Coast Stima
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

creates per match

Nakuru AllStars
0.82
Coast Stima
0.78

allows per match

Nakuru AllStars
1.41
Coast Stima
1.39

finishing

Nakuru AllStars+0.00on par
Coast Stima+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakuru AllStars ↓

Coast Stima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Nakuru AllStars or draw
65%
Nakuru AllStars or Coast Stima
71%
Draw or Coast Stima
64%

Winning margin

Nakuru AllStars wins by 2+
14%
Coast Stima wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Nakuru AllStars 1+ goals
67%
Nakuru AllStars 2+ goals
30%
Nakuru AllStars 3+ goals
10%
Coast Stima 1+ goals
66%
Coast Stima 2+ goals
30%
Coast Stima 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Nakuru AllStars (draw refunded)
50%
Coast Stima (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakuru AllStars at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Coast Stima away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakuru AllStars attack 0.82 + Coast Stima defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.10

Coast Stima attack 0.78 + Nakuru AllStars defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Nakuru AllStars scores more
36%
level
29%
Coast Stima scores more
35%

Nakuru AllStars at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Nakuru AllStars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nakuru AllStars vs Coast Stima

Coast Stima beat Nakuru AllStars 1-0 in Super League on September 16, 2018.