Coast Stima 1–0 Nakuru AllStars: Result & Stats

Coast Stima

FT

1 – 0

Nakuru AllStars

5/22/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Coast Stima63%

×Draw23%

Nakuru AllStars14%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Coast StimaExpected goals in this matchNakuru AllStars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.68

Coast Stima

1.73

Nakuru AllStars

0.68

Coast Stima creates 154% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 14 away

1.81

creates per match

0.43

0.94

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Coast Stima

1.81

Nakuru AllStars

0.43

allows per match

Coast Stima

0.94

Nakuru AllStars

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coast Stima+0.00on par

Nakuru AllStars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coast Stima ↓

Nakuru AllStars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Coast Stima or draw

86%

Coast Stima or Nakuru AllStars

77%

Draw or Nakuru AllStars

37%

Winning margin

Coast Stima wins by 2+

36%

Nakuru AllStars wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Coast Stima 1+ goals

82%

Coast Stima 2+ goals

52%

Coast Stima 3+ goals

25%

Nakuru AllStars 1+ goals

49%

Nakuru AllStars 2+ goals

15%

Nakuru AllStars 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Coast Stima (draw refunded)

81%

Nakuru AllStars (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coast Stima at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

Nakuru AllStars away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coast Stima attack 1.81 + Nakuru AllStars defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.73

Nakuru AllStars attack 0.43 + Coast Stima defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Coast Stima scores more

63%

level

23%

Nakuru AllStars scores more

14%

Coast Stima at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Coast Stima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff