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Nakumatt vs Kariobangi Sharks — FKF Premier League 2018

Nakumatt
Nakumatt
FT
1 – 1
Kariobangi Sharks
Kariobangi Sharks
1/2/2019FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 5Kenyatta Stadium (Machakos)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Nakumatt29%
×Draw25%
Kariobangi Sharks46%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nakumatt
1.23
Kariobangi Sharks
1.60

Kariobangi Sharks creates 30% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 142 away

creates per match

Nakumatt
1.43
Kariobangi Sharks
1.05

allows per match

Nakumatt
2.14
Kariobangi Sharks
1.02

finishing

Nakumatt+0.00on par
Kariobangi Sharks+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakumatt ↓

Kariobangi Sharks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Nakumatt or draw
54%
Nakumatt or Kariobangi Sharks
75%
Draw or Kariobangi Sharks
71%

Winning margin

Nakumatt wins by 2+
12%
Kariobangi Sharks wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Nakumatt 1+ goals
71%
Nakumatt 2+ goals
35%
Nakumatt 3+ goals
13%
Kariobangi Sharks 1+ goals
80%
Kariobangi Sharks 2+ goals
47%
Kariobangi Sharks 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Nakumatt (draw refunded)
39%
Kariobangi Sharks (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakumatt at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.14 · 37 matches

Kariobangi Sharks away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.02 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakumatt attack 1.43 + Kariobangi Sharks defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.23

Kariobangi Sharks attack 1.05 + Nakumatt defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Nakumatt scores more
29%
level
25%
Kariobangi Sharks scores more
46%

Kariobangi Sharks at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kariobangi Sharks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Nakumatt 1–1 Kariobangi Sharks

Nakumatt and Kariobangi Sharks drew 1-1 in FKF Premier League on January 2, 2019.

The match was played at Kenyatta Stadium (Machakos).