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Kariobangi Sharks vs Nakumatt — FKF Premier League 2018

Kariobangi Sharks
Kariobangi Sharks
FT
0 – 0
Nakumatt
Nakumatt
4/14/2018FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 11Kenyatta Stadium (Machakos)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Kariobangi Sharks49%
×Draw25%
Nakumatt26%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kariobangi Sharks
1.61
Nakumatt
1.10

Kariobangi Sharks creates 46% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 38 away

creates per match

Kariobangi Sharks
1.39
Nakumatt
0.95

allows per match

Kariobangi Sharks
1.25
Nakumatt
1.84

finishing

Kariobangi Sharks+0.00on par
Nakumatt+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kariobangi Sharks ↓

Nakumatt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kariobangi Sharks or draw
74%
Kariobangi Sharks or Nakumatt
75%
Draw or Nakumatt
51%

Winning margin

Kariobangi Sharks wins by 2+
26%
Nakumatt wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kariobangi Sharks 1+ goals
80%
Kariobangi Sharks 2+ goals
48%
Kariobangi Sharks 3+ goals
22%
Nakumatt 1+ goals
67%
Nakumatt 2+ goals
30%
Nakumatt 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kariobangi Sharks (draw refunded)
65%
Nakumatt (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kariobangi Sharks at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.25 · 145 matches

Nakumatt away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.84 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kariobangi Sharks attack 1.39 + Nakumatt defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.61

Nakumatt attack 0.95 + Kariobangi Sharks defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kariobangi Sharks scores more
49%
level
25%
Nakumatt scores more
26%

Kariobangi Sharks at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kariobangi Sharks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kariobangi Sharks vs Nakumatt

Kariobangi Sharks and Nakumatt drew 0-0 in FKF Premier League on April 14, 2018.

The match was played at Kenyatta Stadium (Machakos).