Nakhon Si Thammarat 1–1 Nakhon Pathom

Nakhon Si Thammarat

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Nakhon Pathom

8/31/2025

Thai League 2 · Round 4Nakhon Si Thammarat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Nakhon Si Thammarat45%

×Draw27%

Nakhon Pathom28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nakhon Si ThammaratExpected goals in this matchNakhon Pathom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.05

Nakhon Si Thammarat

1.41

Nakhon Pathom

1.05

Nakhon Si Thammarat creates 34% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 70 away

1.80

creates per match

1.04

1.06

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Nakhon Si Thammarat

1.80

Nakhon Pathom

1.04

allows per match

Nakhon Si Thammarat

1.06

Nakhon Pathom

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nakhon Si Thammarat+0.00on par

Nakhon Pathom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakhon Si Thammarat ↓

Nakhon Pathom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Nakhon Si Thammarat or draw

72%

Nakhon Si Thammarat or Nakhon Pathom

73%

Draw or Nakhon Pathom

55%

Winning margin

Nakhon Si Thammarat wins by 2+

22%

Nakhon Pathom wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Nakhon Si Thammarat 1+ goals

76%

Nakhon Si Thammarat 2+ goals

41%

Nakhon Si Thammarat 3+ goals

17%

Nakhon Pathom 1+ goals

65%

Nakhon Pathom 2+ goals

28%

Nakhon Pathom 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Nakhon Si Thammarat (draw refunded)

62%

Nakhon Pathom (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakhon Si Thammarat at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.06 · 70 matches

Nakhon Pathom away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.01 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakhon Si Thammarat attack 1.80 + Nakhon Pathom defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.41

Nakhon Pathom attack 1.04 + Nakhon Si Thammarat defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nakhon Si Thammarat scores more

45%

level

27%

Nakhon Pathom scores more

28%

Nakhon Si Thammarat at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nakhon Si Thammarat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff