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Nakhon Pathom vs Nakhon Si Thammarat — Thai League 2 2018

Nakhon Pathom
Nakhon Pathom
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Nakhon Si Thammarat
Nakhon Si Thammarat
3/4/2023Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 26Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Nakhon Pathom51%
×Draw25%
Nakhon Si Thammarat24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nakhon Pathom
1.59
Nakhon Si Thammarat
1.00

Nakhon Pathom creates 59% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 69 away

creates per match

Nakhon Pathom
1.46
Nakhon Si Thammarat
0.97

allows per match

Nakhon Pathom
1.04
Nakhon Si Thammarat
1.72

finishing

Nakhon Pathom+0.00on par
Nakhon Si Thammarat+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakhon Pathom ↓

Nakhon Si Thammarat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Nakhon Pathom or draw
76%
Nakhon Pathom or Nakhon Si Thammarat
75%
Draw or Nakhon Si Thammarat
49%

Winning margin

Nakhon Pathom wins by 2+
27%
Nakhon Si Thammarat wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Nakhon Pathom 1+ goals
80%
Nakhon Pathom 2+ goals
47%
Nakhon Pathom 3+ goals
21%
Nakhon Si Thammarat 1+ goals
63%
Nakhon Si Thammarat 2+ goals
26%
Nakhon Si Thammarat 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Nakhon Pathom (draw refunded)
68%
Nakhon Si Thammarat (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakhon Pathom at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.04 · 69 matches

Nakhon Si Thammarat away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.72 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakhon Pathom attack 1.46 + Nakhon Si Thammarat defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.59

Nakhon Si Thammarat attack 0.97 + Nakhon Pathom defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Nakhon Pathom scores more
51%
level
25%
Nakhon Si Thammarat scores more
24%

Nakhon Pathom at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Nakhon Pathom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Nakhon Pathom 1–1 Nakhon Si Thammarat

Nakhon Pathom and Nakhon Si Thammarat drew 1-1 in Thai League 2 on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium in Nakhon Pathom.