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Nakhon Si Thammarat vs Esan Pattaya — Thai League 2 2018

Nakhon Si Thammarat
Nakhon Si Thammarat
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Esan Pattaya
Esan Pattaya
9/27/2024Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 7Nakhon Si Thammarat Provincial Administrative Organization Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Nakhon Si Thammarat48%
×Draw25%
Esan Pattaya27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nakhon Si Thammarat
1.54
Esan Pattaya
1.08

Nakhon Si Thammarat creates 43% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 51 away

creates per match

Nakhon Si Thammarat
1.80
Esan Pattaya
1.10

allows per match

Nakhon Si Thammarat
1.06
Esan Pattaya
1.27

finishing

Nakhon Si Thammarat+0.00on par
Esan Pattaya+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakhon Si Thammarat ↓

Esan Pattaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Nakhon Si Thammarat or draw
73%
Nakhon Si Thammarat or Esan Pattaya
75%
Draw or Esan Pattaya
52%

Winning margin

Nakhon Si Thammarat wins by 2+
24%
Esan Pattaya wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Nakhon Si Thammarat 1+ goals
79%
Nakhon Si Thammarat 2+ goals
45%
Nakhon Si Thammarat 3+ goals
20%
Esan Pattaya 1+ goals
66%
Esan Pattaya 2+ goals
29%
Esan Pattaya 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Nakhon Si Thammarat (draw refunded)
64%
Esan Pattaya (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakhon Si Thammarat at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.06 · 70 matches

Esan Pattaya away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.27 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakhon Si Thammarat attack 1.80 + Esan Pattaya defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.54

Esan Pattaya attack 1.10 + Nakhon Si Thammarat defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Nakhon Si Thammarat scores more
48%
level
25%
Esan Pattaya scores more
27%

Nakhon Si Thammarat at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Nakhon Si Thammarat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Nakhon Si Thammarat 3–2 Esan Pattaya

Nakhon Si Thammarat beat Esan Pattaya 3-2 in Thai League 2 on September 27, 2024.

The match was played at Nakhon Si Thammarat Provincial Administrative Organization Stadium in Nakhon Si Thammarat.