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Esan Pattaya vs Nakhon Si Thammarat — Thai League 2 2018

Esan Pattaya
Esan Pattaya
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Nakhon Si Thammarat
Nakhon Si Thammarat
2/8/2025Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 23Nong Prue Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Esan Pattaya47%
×Draw26%
Nakhon Si Thammarat27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esan Pattaya
1.52
Nakhon Si Thammarat
1.08

Esan Pattaya creates 41% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 69 away

creates per match

Esan Pattaya
1.32
Nakhon Si Thammarat
0.97

allows per match

Esan Pattaya
1.20
Nakhon Si Thammarat
1.72

finishing

Esan Pattaya+0.00on par
Nakhon Si Thammarat+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esan Pattaya ↓

Nakhon Si Thammarat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Esan Pattaya or draw
73%
Esan Pattaya or Nakhon Si Thammarat
74%
Draw or Nakhon Si Thammarat
53%

Winning margin

Esan Pattaya wins by 2+
24%
Nakhon Si Thammarat wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Esan Pattaya 1+ goals
78%
Esan Pattaya 2+ goals
45%
Esan Pattaya 3+ goals
20%
Nakhon Si Thammarat 1+ goals
66%
Nakhon Si Thammarat 2+ goals
29%
Nakhon Si Thammarat 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Esan Pattaya (draw refunded)
64%
Nakhon Si Thammarat (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esan Pattaya at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.20 · 50 matches

Nakhon Si Thammarat away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.72 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esan Pattaya attack 1.32 + Nakhon Si Thammarat defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.52

Nakhon Si Thammarat attack 0.97 + Esan Pattaya defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Esan Pattaya scores more
47%
level
26%
Nakhon Si Thammarat scores more
27%

Esan Pattaya at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Esan Pattaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Esan Pattaya 0–1 Nakhon Si Thammarat

Nakhon Si Thammarat beat Esan Pattaya 1-0 in Thai League 2 on February 8, 2025.

The match was played at Nong Prue Stadium in Pattaya.