Nakhon Si Thammarat 3–1 Customs United

Nakhon Si Thammarat

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Customs United

3/3/2024

Thai League 2 · Round 27Nakhon Si Thammarat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Nakhon Si Thammarat55%

×Draw23%

Customs United22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nakhon Si ThammaratExpected goals in this matchCustoms United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.06

Nakhon Si Thammarat

1.83

Customs United

1.06

Nakhon Si Thammarat creates 73% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 87 away

1.80

creates per match

1.06

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Nakhon Si Thammarat

1.80

Customs United

1.06

allows per match

Nakhon Si Thammarat

1.06

Customs United

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nakhon Si Thammarat+0.00on par

Customs United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakhon Si Thammarat ↓

Customs United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Nakhon Si Thammarat or draw

78%

Nakhon Si Thammarat or Customs United

77%

Draw or Customs United

45%

Winning margin

Nakhon Si Thammarat wins by 2+

31%

Customs United wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Nakhon Si Thammarat 1+ goals

84%

Nakhon Si Thammarat 2+ goals

54%

Nakhon Si Thammarat 3+ goals

28%

Customs United 1+ goals

65%

Customs United 2+ goals

29%

Customs United 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Nakhon Si Thammarat (draw refunded)

72%

Customs United (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakhon Si Thammarat at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.06 · 70 matches

Customs United away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.85 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakhon Si Thammarat attack 1.80 + Customs United defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.83

Customs United attack 1.06 + Nakhon Si Thammarat defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Nakhon Si Thammarat scores more

55%

level

23%

Customs United scores more

22%

Nakhon Si Thammarat at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Nakhon Si Thammarat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff