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Customs United vs Nakhon Si Thammarat — Thai League 2 2018

Customs United
Customs United
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Nakhon Si Thammarat
Nakhon Si Thammarat
3/29/2023Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 30Lat Krabang 54 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Customs United42%
×Draw26%
Nakhon Si Thammarat33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Customs United
1.45
Nakhon Si Thammarat
1.25

Customs United creates 16% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 69 away

creates per match

Customs United
1.18
Nakhon Si Thammarat
0.97

allows per match

Customs United
1.53
Nakhon Si Thammarat
1.72

finishing

Customs United+0.00on par
Nakhon Si Thammarat+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Customs United ↓

Nakhon Si Thammarat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Customs United or draw
67%
Customs United or Nakhon Si Thammarat
74%
Draw or Nakhon Si Thammarat
58%

Winning margin

Customs United wins by 2+
20%
Nakhon Si Thammarat wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Customs United 1+ goals
77%
Customs United 2+ goals
42%
Customs United 3+ goals
18%
Nakhon Si Thammarat 1+ goals
71%
Nakhon Si Thammarat 2+ goals
36%
Nakhon Si Thammarat 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Customs United (draw refunded)
56%
Nakhon Si Thammarat (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Customs United at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.53 · 87 matches

Nakhon Si Thammarat away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.72 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Customs United attack 1.18 + Nakhon Si Thammarat defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.45

Nakhon Si Thammarat attack 0.97 + Customs United defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Customs United scores more
42%
level
26%
Nakhon Si Thammarat scores more
33%

Customs United at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Customs United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Customs United vs Nakhon Si Thammarat

Customs United beat Nakhon Si Thammarat 2-0 in Thai League 2 on March 29, 2023.

The match was played at Lat Krabang 54 Stadium in Bangkok.