Nakhon Si Thammarat 3–2 Chonburi FC: Result & Stats

Nakhon Si Thammarat

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Chonburi FC

11/24/2024

Thai League 2 · Round 13Nakhon Si Thammarat Provincial Administrative Organization Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Nakhon Si Thammarat43%

×Draw27%

Chonburi FC30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nakhon Si ThammaratExpected goals in this matchChonburi FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.13

Nakhon Si Thammarat

1.40

Chonburi FC

1.13

Nakhon Si Thammarat creates 24% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 16 away

1.80

creates per match

1.19

1.06

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Nakhon Si Thammarat

1.80

Chonburi FC

1.19

allows per match

Nakhon Si Thammarat

1.06

Chonburi FC

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nakhon Si Thammarat+0.00on par

Chonburi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakhon Si Thammarat ↓

Chonburi FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Nakhon Si Thammarat or draw

70%

Nakhon Si Thammarat or Chonburi FC

73%

Draw or Chonburi FC

57%

Winning margin

Nakhon Si Thammarat wins by 2+

20%

Chonburi FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Nakhon Si Thammarat 1+ goals

75%

Nakhon Si Thammarat 2+ goals

41%

Nakhon Si Thammarat 3+ goals

17%

Chonburi FC 1+ goals

68%

Chonburi FC 2+ goals

31%

Chonburi FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Nakhon Si Thammarat (draw refunded)

59%

Chonburi FC (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakhon Si Thammarat at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.06 · 70 matches

Chonburi FC away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakhon Si Thammarat attack 1.80 + Chonburi FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

Chonburi FC attack 1.19 + Nakhon Si Thammarat defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nakhon Si Thammarat scores more

43%

level

27%

Chonburi FC scores more

30%

Nakhon Si Thammarat at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nakhon Si Thammarat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff