Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Si Thammarat — Thai League 2 2018

Chonburi FC
Chonburi FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Nakhon Si Thammarat
Nakhon Si Thammarat
3/16/2025Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 29Chonburi Daikin Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chonburi FC62%
×Draw21%
Nakhon Si Thammarat16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chonburi FC
1.98
Nakhon Si Thammarat
0.90

Chonburi FC creates 120% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 69 away

creates per match

Chonburi FC
2.24
Nakhon Si Thammarat
0.97

allows per match

Chonburi FC
0.82
Nakhon Si Thammarat
1.72

finishing

Chonburi FC+0.00on par
Nakhon Si Thammarat+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chonburi FC ↓

Nakhon Si Thammarat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Chonburi FC or draw
84%
Chonburi FC or Nakhon Si Thammarat
79%
Draw or Nakhon Si Thammarat
38%

Winning margin

Chonburi FC wins by 2+
38%
Nakhon Si Thammarat wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Chonburi FC 1+ goals
86%
Chonburi FC 2+ goals
59%
Chonburi FC 3+ goals
31%
Nakhon Si Thammarat 1+ goals
59%
Nakhon Si Thammarat 2+ goals
23%
Nakhon Si Thammarat 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Chonburi FC (draw refunded)
79%
Nakhon Si Thammarat (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chonburi FC at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Nakhon Si Thammarat away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.72 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chonburi FC attack 2.24 + Nakhon Si Thammarat defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.98

Nakhon Si Thammarat attack 0.97 + Chonburi FC defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Chonburi FC scores more
62%
level
21%
Nakhon Si Thammarat scores more
16%

Chonburi FC at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Chonburi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chonburi FC vs Nakhon Si Thammarat

Chonburi FC beat Nakhon Si Thammarat 2-1 in Thai League 2 on March 16, 2025.

The match was played at Chonburi Daikin Stadium in Chonburi.