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Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Krabi FC — Thai League 2 2018

Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Krabi FC
Krabi FC
9/17/2023Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 5His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nakhon Ratchasima FC72%
×Draw18%
Krabi FC10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nakhon Ratchasima FC
2.17
Krabi FC
0.67

Nakhon Ratchasima FC creates 224% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 48 away

creates per match

Nakhon Ratchasima FC
2.12
Krabi FC
0.94

allows per match

Nakhon Ratchasima FC
0.41
Krabi FC
2.21

finishing

Nakhon Ratchasima FC+0.00on par
Krabi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakhon Ratchasima FC ↓

Krabi FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Nakhon Ratchasima FC or draw
90%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC or Krabi FC
82%
Draw or Krabi FC
28%

Winning margin

Nakhon Ratchasima FC wins by 2+
47%
Krabi FC wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1+ goals
89%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2+ goals
64%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3+ goals
36%
Krabi FC 1+ goals
49%
Krabi FC 2+ goals
15%
Krabi FC 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Nakhon Ratchasima FC (draw refunded)
88%
Krabi FC (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.41 · 17 matches

Krabi FC away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.21 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 2.12 + Krabi FC defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.17

Krabi FC attack 0.94 + Nakhon Ratchasima FC defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Nakhon Ratchasima FC scores more
72%
level
18%
Krabi FC scores more
10%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Nakhon Ratchasima FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Krabi FC

Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat Krabi FC 1-0 in Thai League 2 on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium in Nakhon Ratchasima.